This article has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. It is in production and has not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.
Modelling the rate of fire spread and uncertainty associated with the onset and propagation of crown fires in conifer forest stands
Crown fires are complex unstable phenomena dependent on feedback mechanisms between the combustion products of distinct fuel layers. We describe non-linear fire behaviour associated with crowning and the uncertainty they cause in fire behaviour predictions by running a semi-physical modelling system within a simple Monte Carlo simulation framework. The method was able to capture the dynamics of passive and active crown fire spread regimes, providing estimates of average rate of spread and the extent of crown fire activity. System outputs were evaluated against data collected from a wildfire that occurred in a radiata pine plantation in south-eastern Australia. The Monte Carlo method reduced prediction errors relative to the more commonly used deterministic modelling approach, and allowed for a more complete description of the level of crown fire behaviour to expect. The method also provides uncertainty measures and probabilistic outputs, extending the range of questions that can be answered by fire behaviour models.
WF16218 Accepted 13 March 2017
© CSIRO 2017