International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire

Just Accepted

This article has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. It is in production and has not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.

Human-caused fire occurrence modelling in perspective: A review

Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes , Carles Comas , Cristina Vega-Garcia


The increasing global concern about wildfires, mostly caused by people, has triggered the development of human-caused fire occurrence models in many countries. The premise is that better knowledge of the underlying factors is critical for many fire management purposes such as operational decision-making in suppression and strategic prevention planning, or guidance on forest and land-use policies. However, the explanatory and predictive capacity of fire occurrence models is not yet widely applied to forest, fire or emergency management. In this article, we analyze the state of the art of human-caused fire occurrence modeling with the aim of identifying the most appropriate variables and methods for applications in forest and fire management and civil protection. We stratify our worldwide analysis by temporal dimension (short-term and long-term) and by model output (numeric or binary), and discuss management applications. An attempt to perform a meta-analysis based on published models proved limited due to non-equivalence of the metrics and units of the estimators and outcomes across studies, the diversity of models and the lack of information in published works.

WF17026  Accepted 27 September 2017

© CSIRO 2017