An efficient, multi-scale neighbourhood index to quantify wildfire likelihood

Douglas A. G. Radford; Holger R. Maier; Hedwig van Delden; Aaron C. Zecchin; Amelie Jeanneau

doi:10.1071/WF23055

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Contents Vol 33(5)

An efficient, multi-scale neighbourhood index to quantify wildfire likelihood

Douglas A. G. Radford

^A ^* , Holger R. Maier ^A , Hedwig van Delden ^A ^B , Aaron C. Zecchin ^A and Amelie Jeanneau ^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.

^B Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Maastricht, The Netherlands.

^* Correspondence to: douglas.radford@adelaide.edu.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23055 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23055

Submitted: 25 April 2023 Accepted: 4 April 2024 Published: 26 April 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

Background

To effectively reduce future wildfire risk, several management strategies must be evaluated under plausible future scenarios, requiring models that provide estimates of how likely wildfires are to spread to community assets (wildfire likelihood) in a computationally efficient manner. Approaches to quantifying wildfire likelihood using fire simulation models cannot practically achieve this because they are too computationally expensive.

Aim

This study aimed to develop an approach for quantifying wildfire likelihood that is both computationally efficient and able to consider contagious and directionally specific fire behaviour properties across multiple spatial ‘neighbourhood’ scales.

Methods

A novel, computationally efficient index for quantifying wildfire likelihood is proposed. This index is evaluated against historical and simulated data on a case study in South Australia.

Key results

The neighbourhood index explains historical burnt areas and closely replicates patterns in burn probability calculated using landscape fire simulation (ρ = 0.83), while requiring 99.7% less computational time than the simulation-based model.

Conclusions

The neighbourhood index represents patterns in wildfire likelihood similar to those represented in burn probability, with a much-reduced computational time.

Implications

By using the index alongside existing approaches, managers can better explore problems involving many evaluations of wildfire likelihood, thereby improving planning processes and reducing future wildfire risks.

Keywords: burn probability, fire behaviour, fire management, fire simulation modelling, neighbourhood index, planning, risk, wildfire likelihood.

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