Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > WF > WF06072
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 16(2)

Modelling the probability of sustained flaming: predictive value of fire weather index components compared with observations of site weather and fuel moisture conditions

Jennifer L. Beverly A C and B. Mike Wotton B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada.

B Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada.

C Corresponding author. Email: jbeverly@nrcan.gc.ca

International Journal of Wildland Fire 16(2) 161-173 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06072
Published: 30 April 2007

Abstract

We investigated the likelihood that short-duration sustained flaming would develop in forest ground fuels that had direct contact with a small and short-lived flame source. Data from 1027 small-scale experimental test fires conducted in field trials at six sites in British Columbia and the North-West Territories between 1958 and 1961 were used to develop logistic regression models for ten fuel categories that represent unique combinations of forest cover, ground fuel type, and in some cases, season. Separate models were developed using two subsets of independent variables: (1) weather variables and fuel moisture measurements taken at the site of the test fire; and (2) Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system components calculated from weather observations recorded at a nearby station. Results indicated that models developed with FWI system components were as effective as models developed with site variables at predicting the probability of short-duration sustained flaming in most fuel categories. FWI system components were not useful for predicting sustained flaming in spring grass fuels and had limited usefulness for modelling the probability of sustained flaming in aspen leaf ground fuels during summer conditions. For all other fuel categories, FWI system components were highly effective substitutes for site variables for modelling the probability of sustained flaming.

Additional keywords: Canada, fire behaviour, fire danger, fire hazard, logistic regression, probability of ignition.


Acknowledgements

We thank the many forest fire researchers with the Canadian federal government who participated in the design, development, and implementation of the small-scale test fire program and/or contributed to the maintenance of the test fire database over the past 70 years. Special thanks to B. Todd (Canadian Forest Service) for ensuring that key historical test fire documents were preserved to support future analysis of the test fire data. We thank T. Lynham (Canadian Forest Service), two anonymous reviewers and our assigning editor for providing helpful comments on the manuscript.


References


Anderson HE (1970) Forest fuel ignitability. Fire Technology  6, 312–319.

| Crossref | Blackmarr WH (1973) Moisture content influences ignitability of slash pine litter. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Note SE-173. (Asheville, NC)

Brown AA , Davis KP (1973) ‘Forest fire control and use.’ 2nd edn. (McGraw-Hill Book Company: Toronto)

Chuvieco E, Aguado I , Dimitrakopoulos AP (2004) Conversion of fuel moisture content to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  34, 2284–2293.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Fernandes PM , Botelho PM , Loureiro C (2002) Models for the sustained ignition and behaviour of low-to-moderately intense fires in maritime pine stands. In ‘Proceedings of the IV International Conference on Forest Fire Research/2002 Wildland Fire Safety Summit’. (Ed. DX Viegas) (CD-ROM) (Millpress Science Publishers: Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Frandsen WH (1997) Ignition probability of organic soils. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  27, 1471–1477.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Fraser EF , Joly DG (1965) Codes for IBM fuel moisture cards used to record moisture content of oven-dried fuel samples and fuel moisture indicators. Department of Forestry, Mimeo report 65-H-2, Forest Research Branch, Ottawa.

Joly EF , Fraser DG (1961) Codes for IBM fire behaviour card used to record small-scale test fire results. Department of Forestry, Mimeo report 61-16, Forest Research Branch, Ottawa.

Joly EF , Fraser DG (1962) Codes for IBM weather cards used to record fire weather and general climatological data. Department of Forestry, Mimeo report 62-5, Forest Research Branch, Ottawa.

Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG, Flannigan MD , Wein RW (2006) Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology  87, 458–468.

| PubMed | Latham DJ , Schlieter JA (1989) Ignition probabilities of wildland fuels based on simulated lightning discharges. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Paper INT-411. (Ogden, UT)

Larjavaara M, Kuuluvainen T, Tanskanen H , Venäläinen A (2004) Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland. Silva Fennica  38, 253–266.
Lawson BD , Dalrymple GN (1996) Probabilities of sustained flaming in lodgepole pine, interior Douglas-fir, and white spruce-subalpine fir forest types. Partnership agreement on forest resource development: FRDA II. Suppl. 1 to: Field guide to the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System. Canadian Forest Service, FRDA Handbook 12. (Victoria, BC)

Lawson BD , Armitage OB , Dalrymple GN (1994) Ignition probabilities for simulated people-caused fires in British Columbia’s lodgepole pine and white spruce-subalpine fir forests. In ‘Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, October 26–28, 1993, Jekyll Island’. pp. 493–505. (Society of American Foresters: Bethesda, MD)

Lawson BD , Armitage OB , Hoskins WD (1996) Diurnal variation in the Fine Fuel Moisture Code: Tables and computer source code. Can.-B.C. Partnership Agreement on Forest Resource Development: FRDA II. Canadian Forest Service, FRDA Report #245. (Victoria, BC)

Lawson BD , Frandsen WH , Hawkes BC , Malrymple GN (1997) Probability of sustained smoldering ignition for some boreal duff types. Forest Management Note 63. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre. (Edmonton, AB)

Lin CC (1999) Modeling probability of ignition in Taiwan red pine forests. Taiwan Journal of Forest Science  14, 339–344.
Macleod JC (1948) The effect of night weather on forest fire danger. Forest Fire Research Note No. 14, Canada Department of Mines and Resources, Dominion Forest Service.

Manzello SL, Thomas GC, Shields JR , Yang JC (2006) On the ignition of fuel beds by firebrands. Fire and Materials  30, 77–87.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Paul PM (1969) Field practice in Forest Fire Danger Rating. Canadian Forest Service, Forest Fire Research Institute, Report FF-X-20. (Ottawa, ON)

Pérez-Gorostiaga P , Vega JA , Fonturbel MT , Guijarro M , Hernando C , Diez C , Martinez E , Lampin Cabaret M , Blanc L , Colin PY (2002) Capability of ignition of some forest firebrands. In ‘Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Forest Fire Research, November 18–23, 2002, Luso-Coimbra, Portugal’. (Ed. DX Viegas) (Millipress: Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Ray D, Nepstad D , Mountinho P (2005) Micrometeorological and canopy controls of fire susceptibility in a forested Amazon landscape. Ecological Applications  15, 1664–1678.
SAS Institute (2004) ‘SAS/STAT 9.1 user’s guide.’ (SAS Institute: Cary, NC)

Simard AJ (1970) Reference manual and summary of test fire, fuel moisture, and weather observations made by forest fire researchers between 1931 and 1961. Forest Fire Research Institute, Report FF-X-20. (Ottawa, ON)

Tanskanen H, Venäläinen A, Puttonen P , Granström A (2005) Impact of stand structure on surface fire ignition potential in southern Finland. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  35, 410–420.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Van Wagner CE (1972) A table of diurnal variation in the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. Canadian Forest Service, Petawawa Forest Experiment Station, Information Report PS-X-38. (Chalk River, ON)

Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forest Service, Technical Report 25. (Ottawa, ON)

Weise DR, Zhou X, Sun L , Mahalingam S (2005) Fire spread in chaparral—‘go or no-go’? International Journal of Wildland Fire  14, 99–106.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wotton BM , Beverly JL (in press) Stand-specific litter moisture content calibrations for the Canadian Fine Fuel Moisture Code. International Journal of Wildland Fire. ,


Wotton BM , Martell DL (2005) A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  35, 1389–1401.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |




1 A more detailed report describing the test fire procedures and experimental sites is being prepared: J. L. Beverly and B. M. Wotton: The Canadian small-scale test fire database: historical overview and data documentation. Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Information Report (in preparation).

2 Unpublished report. Lynham TJ, Martell DL (1989) Preliminary report on a national database of experimental fire in Canada. In ‘Proc. National Workshop on Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction’ May 3–4, 1989, Forestry Canada.




Appendix 1.  Temperature, relative humidity, vapour pressure deficit, and fuel moisture content for the two test fire outcomes: no sustained flaming and sustained flaming
Click to zoom


Appendix 2.  FWI component values that exceeded median values (calculated for all fires and for all fuel categories) for the two test fire outcomes: no sustained flaming and sustained flaming
BUI, Buildup Index; DC, Drought Code; DMC, Duff Moisture Code; FFMC, diurnally adjusted Fine Fuel Moisture Code; FWI, Fire Weather Index calculated from the Buildup Index and diurnally adjusted ISI; ISI, diurnally adjusted Initial Spread Index calculated from diurnally adjusted FFMC and the 10-m open wind speed
Click to zoom