A simulation model of the growth and suppression of large forest fires in Ontario
Justin J. Podur A B C and David L. Martell BA Present address: Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, 109 HNES Building, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
B Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3B3, Canada.
C Corresponding author. Email: jpodur@yorku.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 16(3) 285-294 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06107
Submitted: 14 July 2006 Accepted: 27 October 2006 Published: 3 July 2007
Abstract
Most of the area burned by forest fires in Canada is due to the few fires that escape initial attack and become large. We developed a discrete event simulation model of the growth and suppression of large fires in the province of Ontario. Based on fire, weather and suppression data from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, our model includes a logistic regression component to predict the probability that a fire will escape initial attack and burn more than 100 ha, a component that simulates the growth of large fires based on weather and forest vegetation, and a component that simulates fire suppression by firefighters and aircraft. We used our model to predict area burned under mild and severe weather with varying levels of fire suppression resources. We found that, although severe weather limits fire suppression effectiveness, suppression has a significant effect on area burned even during severe fire seasons.
Acknowledgements
We relied on the expertise of the OMNR fire managers who generously contributed their time, knowledge, and data. We thank especially R. McAlpine, D. Boychuk, A. O’Connor, R. Janser, R. Luik, and J. Caputo for their support. We also thank M. Wotton, M. Flannigan, B. Stocks, S. Rogers, and D. Frances for their input. This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
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1 Fires in the extensive protection zone are not fought unless they pose a significant threat to public safety or property.
