This paper describes the development of Australian east coast lows and the interaction of upper trough systems with tropical cyclones.

Flip-flopping of forecasts as we approach a weather event creates confusing messages and can cause plans to flip-flop. We provide a way to quantify the stability of forecasts of direction using a new index, the Circular Flip-Flop Index. Applying this to Australian forecasts of wind direction, we show that some forecasts of similar skill can be differentiated by their different stability.

Climate change and sea level rise is one of the most important issues for our planet. This research found that sea level rise in southern Java, Indonesia, is impacted by climate change as well as climate variability events, like the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. For the period 1993–2018, the sea level in the southern waters of Java, Indonesia, increased by about 4.7 mm/year.

Marine heatwaves are prolonged, extremely warm oceanic events that can severely impact marine ecosystems. They are becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer in duration around the world, including around Australia. This paper analyses and catalogues historical marine heatwaves around Australia since 1982. The paper also examines marine heatwaves in several case study regions, including off the Western Australian coast, Torres Strait, Great Barrier Reef, Tasman Sea, and the South Australian Basin.

Two-year-long 11-member ensemble forecast simulations by the Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble modelling system initiated over 2002–2015 were analysed. The links between interannual variations of Indo-Pacific climate driver indices, moisture flux towards Australia, and All-Australia precipitation were similar to those in ERA5 and other data sets. There is some skill in the seasonal and annual-mean forecasts of these quantities for lead times beyond 6 months, extending into the second year.