Potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change on Victorian wheat marketing grades and value
Chris J. Korte
A G , Patrick Wilson B , Brian Kearns A , Glenn J. Fitzgerald A D , Joe F. Panozzo A , Cassandra K. Walker A , Brendan Christy F , James G. Nuttall A , Roger D. Armstrong A E , Michael Tausz C and Garry J. O' Leary A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Agriculture Victoria, Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, Private Bag 260, Horsham, Vic. 3401, Australia.
B GrainCorp Limited, 16 Mann Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.
C Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science, The University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Vic. 3363, Australia. Present address: Agriculture, Science and the Environment, School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, Central Queensland University, Building 361 (CQIRP), Ibis Avenue, Rockhampton, Qld 4703, Australia.
D Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, The University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Vic. 3363, Australia.
E Department of Animal, Plant and Soil Sciences, AgriBiosciences, LaTrobe University, Bundoora, Vic. 3086, Australia.
F Agriculture Victoria, Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, Rutherglen, Vic. 3658, Australia.
G Corresponding author. Email: korte@bigpond.net.au
Crop and Pasture Science 70(11) 926-938 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP19155
Submitted: 16 April 2019 Accepted: 12 September 2019 Published: 29 November 2019
Abstract
The potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and future climate predicted for 2050 on wheat marketing grades and grain value was evaluated for Victoria, Australia. This evaluation was based on measured grain yield and quality from the Australian Grains FACE program and commercial grain delivery data from Victoria for five seasons (2009–13). Extrapolation of relationships derived from field experimentation under elevated [CO2] to the Victorian wheat crop indicated that 34% of grain would be downgraded by one marketing grade (range 1–62% depending on season and region) because of reduced protein concentration; and that proportions of high-protein wheat grades would reduce and proportions of lower protein grades would increase, with the largest increase in the Australian Standard White (ASW1) grade. Simulation modelling with predicted 2050 [CO2] and future climate indicated reduced wheat yields compared with 2009–13 but higher and lower grain quality depending on region. The Mallee Region was most negatively affected by climate change, with a predicted 43% yield reduction and 43% of grain downgraded by one marketing grade. Using 2016 prices, the value of Victorian wheat grain was influenced mainly by production in the different scenarios, with quality changes in different scenarios having minimal impact on grain value.
Additional keywords: CO2 elevation, climate effects on cropping systems, free air carbon dioxide enrichment, wheat quality.
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