Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis of the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. Read more about the journalMore

Editor-in-Chief: Steven Siems

Editors: Peter May and Andréa Taschetto

Publishing Model: Open Access

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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology [external link] in association with the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Societ y [external link]

Latest

These articles are the latest published in the journal. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published under a continuous publication model. More information is available on our Continuous Publication page.

Published online 29 August 2025

ES25006Characterisation of influential mechanisms in the life cycle of fog: a study of two extreme events at airports in central-eastern Argentina

Melina Sol Yabra

, Matilde Nicolini and Luciano Vidal

Reduced visibility due to fog significantly disrupts global air traffic, causing cancellations, delays and diversions. Using METAR, GOES-16 satellite images and ERA5 data, this study identified multiple simultaneous mechanisms influencing two fog events that strongly affected Argentine main airports. Understanding the physical mechanisms of fog is essential for better forecasting and mitigation.

ES25006 Abstract | ES25006 Full Text | ES25006 Full Text | ES25006PDF (10.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 29 August 2025

ES25001Impacts of South Atlantic Ocean thermal variability on changes in drylands in Argentina

Pedro Samuel Blanco

and Moira Evelina Doyle

Drylands are vulnerable to climate variability. This study reveals that dryland changes in Argentina are associated with variations in South Atlantic sea surface temperatures, finding that the expansion of drylands in the central region of the country, driven by increased aridity, is linked to a warming of the tropical Atlantic and cooling in the south-western Atlantic. These findings are crucial for the country, as drylands cover more than half of the territory and the economy depends on agricultural productivity.

ES25001 Abstract | ES25001 Full Text | ES25001PDF (7.7 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 27 August 2025

ES24049Classic and innovative trend analysis of long term annual precipitation in Argentina

María Paula Llano

This study evaluates the trend of long annual precipitation series in Argentina and compares the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and innovative trends analysis (ITA) method. The graphical method (ITA) has several advantages over the traditional method (MK), detecting both monotonic and non-monotonic trends, and detecting trends more sensitively by looking for smaller variations, unlike MK, which analyses series more generally. Although the MK and ITA results showed similar trend directions, with the latter methodology, the number of significant trends were greater.

ES24049 Abstract | ES24049 Full Text | ES24049PDF (3.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 13 August 2025

ES24045Synoptic mechanisms behind historical rainfall records in Australasia: Cyclone Jasper and Auckland low

Jeff Callaghan

Two events, one affecting north Queensland from Tropical Cyclone Jasper in December 2023 and the other in Auckland, New Zealand, in January 2023 produced record rainfall. Analyses of wind and thermal structure found that multiple factors occurring simultaneously were responsible for the extreme rainfall for both events. Similar events today would be worsened by global warming causing rising sea levels.

ES24045 Abstract | ES24045 Full Text | ES24045PDF (15 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 01 August 2025

ES24007Variability of Australian climate and future changes

I. G. Watterson

How variable is Australian climate and how will this change in a warmer world? The interannual variability of rainfall, temperature, pressure, moisture flux and winds is assessed using gridded observations and climate model output. Australian climate variability is typically somewhat larger than over global land. There is a small increase for 2°C global warming, in part linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ES24007 Abstract | ES24007 Full Text | ES24007PDF (8.7 MB) | ES24007Supplementary Material (5.2 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 16 July 2025

ES24031Green Sahara influence on South Atlantic dynamics: insights from NASA GISS simulations

Ilana Wainer

, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael Griffiths, Luciana F. Prado and Paulo Silva

This study explores the impact of Mid-Holocene terrestrial changes, particularly the Green Sahara and African mega-lakes, on South Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics using NASA GISS E2.1-G climate model simulations. Findings highlight significant alterations in sea surface temperatures, salinity, circulation patterns and atmospheric dynamics, underscoring the critical role of vegetation and hydrology in modulating regional climate during this period. The research provides valuable insights into the interconnected nature of Earth’s climate systems, with implications for understanding past climate variability and future changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

ES24031 Abstract | ES24031 Full Text | ES24031PDF (33 MB) | ES24031Supplementary Material (1.6 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 08 July 2025

ES24047Seasonal sea level forecasts for the Australian coast

Ryan M. Holmes

, Grant A. Smith

and Claire M. Spillman

Seasonal variations in coastal sea level associated with climate variability such as El Niño are known to influence the frequency of coastal flooding around Australia. In this article we show that, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system ACCESS-S2, seasonal coastal sea level variations can be forecast accurately up to 8 months ahead of time. These seasonal forecasts will form an important component of an early warning system under development to improve community resilience to coastal flooding hazards.

ES24047 Abstract | ES24047 Full Text | ES24047PDF (7.9 MB) | ES24047Supplementary Material (1.1 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25010The Australian wave forecast system with statistical wind correction

Stefan Zieger

The Bureau of Meteorology provides vital marine services that strongly depend on guidance from a suite of numerical weather prediction models. These models have vastly improved skill because of increased resolution, enhanced data assimilation (increasing numbers and types of observations), and improved physical parameterisations – and are verified against satellite and wave buoy observations. Compared to the legacy wave model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, the Bureau’s global wave forecast system shows increased skill.

ES25010 Abstract | ES25010 Full Text | ES25010PDF (10.4 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25005Diverse impact of 2023 El Niño on weather patterns over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Sanaullah Zehri

, Erma Yulihastin

, Fiolenta Marpaung

, Agung Adiputra, Mushoddik

, Narizka Nanda Purwadani

and Gammamerdianti

The 2023 El Niño significantly affected weather patterns across the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). Using ERA5 data, this study analyses these effects. Findings reveal that, while the northern IMC exhibited increased rainfall due to the warming of the South China Sea, the southern IMC experienced severe drought exacerbated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and weakened easterly winds. This study improves understanding of the diverse impact of El Niño on intraseasonal weather to enhance seasonal climate predictions over the IMC.

ES25005 Abstract | ES25005 Full Text | ES25005PDF (8 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 17 June 2025

ES24039Sea level trajectories and recent records at Australian tide gauges

Ben S. Hague

, David A. Jones, Jason West

and Dörte Jakob

Record floods and record mean sea levels are occurring more often than would be expected if sea level rise was not occurring. Our results imply that higher sea-level rise scenarios are most consistent with the continuation of recent trends.

ES24039 Abstract | ES24039 Full Text | ES24039PDF (1.6 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 04 June 2025

ES24050Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia

Xiaoxuan Jiang

, Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su

, Rachael N. Isphording, Benjamin Ng, Sarah Chapman

, Fei Ji, Michael Grose

, Jozef Syktus

, Ralph Trancoso, Marcus Thatcher, Sugata Narsey

, Giovanni Di Virgilio and Jatin Kala

Regional high-resolution climate models (RCMs) provide insights for assessing future climate hazards and risks. Determining the ability of RCMs to simulate present day rainfall and temperatures is critical to inform model use. We apply a novel benchmarking framework to assess RCMs’ ability to simulate Australia’s current climate. Across latest projections produced by four modelling centres, no climate simulation consistently fails the majority of benchmarks. We conclude that the full multi-model ensemble is fit for use in the Australian region.

ES24050 Abstract | ES24050 Full Text | ES24050PDF (8 MB) | ES24050Supplementary Material (2.4 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 03 June 2025

ES24030Synoptic structure of severe Zonda downslope windstorms in Argentina

Federico Otero

, Diego Araneo and Maximiliano Viale

Severe Zonda windstorms in Argentina produce intense, gusty, warm and dry conditions that result in significant socioeconomic impacts. This study examines the atmospheric dynamics driving long-duration severe events, highlighting the role of stronger pressure systems, enhanced upper- and lower-level winds and more intense cross-Andes flow. These findings enhance our understanding of severe Zonda windstorms and provide insights that could improve weather forecasting and help mitigate their impacts on affected communities.

ES24030 Abstract | ES24030 Full Text | ES24030PDF (11.6 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 29 May 2025

ES21010_COCorrigendum to: Circular Flip-Flop Index: quantifying revision stability of forecasts of direction

Deryn Griffiths, Nicholas Loveday, Benjamin Price, Michael Foley and Alistair McKelvie

ES21010_CO Full Text | ES21010_COPDF (717 KB) Open Access Article

Published online 20 May 2025

ES24041Evaluation of near-surface atmospheric composition reanalysis data in the metropolis of São Paulo, Brazil

Marina S. Paiva, Marco A. Franco and Luciana V. Rizzo

Air pollution is unequally monitored in Brazil, despite its relevance and health impacts. Global atmospheric model estimates can fill this lack of data after validation against air pollution observations. This study evaluates two global models and finds that one of them reproduces the seasonal variation of air pollution in the metropolis of São Paulo. After the necessary corrections, model estimates can be used to assess air pollution conditions in regions where direct observations are absent.

ES24041 Abstract | ES24041 Full Text | ES24041PDF (3.3 MB) | ES24041Supplementary Material (1.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 30 April 2025

ES24052Probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind gusts

Paul Fox-Hughes

and Alex Melitsis

Two extreme wind case studies in Tasmania are investigated. The efficacy of a probabilistic wind gust diagnostic, based on ACCESS-CE model output, is assessed in each case. For these events, the diagnostic was found to usefully summarise model information about the timing, intensity and extent of the extreme winds.

ES24052 Abstract | ES24052 Full Text | ES24052 Full Text | ES24052PDF (6.3 MB) Open Access Article

More content

Just Accepted

These articles have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. They are still in production and have not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.

ES25032, Accepted 31 August 2025

The Australian Regional Atmospheric Reanalysis System, version 2 (BARRA2)

Chun-Hsu Su

, Joshua Torrance

, Susan Rennie

, Emma Howard

, Christian Stassen

, Rob Warren, Andy Smith, Imtiaz Dharssi, Acacia Pepler

, Siyuan Tian

, Mathew Lipson, Peter Steinle, Charmaine Franklin, Tan Le, Carl Wang, Salim Masoumi and John Le Marshall

ES25032Abstract

ES25015, Accepted 13 August 2025

Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia

Sugata Narsey

, Michael Grose

, François Delage, Gen Tolhurst, Christine Chung

, Alicia Takbash, Ghyslaine Boschat, Malcolm King, Acacia Pepler

, Marcus Thatcher, Benjamin Ng

, Cong Hoang Son Truong

, Chun-Hsu Su

, Emma Howard

, Christian Stassen

, Mitchell Black

, David Jones, Richard Matear, Sarah Chapman

, Jozef Syktus, Ralph Trancoso, Giovanni Di Virgilio, Rishav Goyal, Jatin Kala, Vanessa Round and Jason Evans

ES25015Abstract

ES25030, Accepted 11 August 2025

Springtime rainfall changes in Australia related to projected changes in large-scale modes of variability

Christine Chung

, Scott Power, Ghyslaine Boschat, Zoe Gillet, Andrea Taschetto

, Sugata Narsey

and Acacia Pepler

ES25030Abstract

ES24048, Accepted 11 August 2025

Building relationships between First Nations Peoples and Western scientists to increase capacity to understand, respond and adapt to climate change.

Damian Morgan-Bulled, Rowena Bullio, Torres Webb, Sonia Cooper, Jonathan Green, Mandy Hopkins, Kathy McInnes, Neil Holbrook

, Guy Jackson, Dewi Kirono, Simon Marsland

, Marian Sheppard, Christine Chung

, Rangi Clubb, Thomas Clubb, Samarla Deshong, Cass Hunter, Dan Joseph, Learna Langworthy, Djungan Neal, Leah Talbot, Sharon Cavanagh-Luskin, Josep Canadell, Moni Carlisle, Gareth Catt, Jason Evans

, Birrin Hooper, David Karoly, Hamish Ramsay and Ro Hill