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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science SocietyJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Society
A journal for meteorology, climate, oceanography, hydrology and space weather focused on the southern hemisphere
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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis of the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. Read more about the journalMore

Editor-in-Chief: Steven Siems

Editors: Peter May and Andréa Taschetto

Publishing Model: Open Access

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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology [external link] in association with the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society [external link]

Latest

These articles are the latest published in the journal. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published under a continuous publication model. More information is available on our Continuous Publication page.

Published online 01 August 2025

ES24007Variability of Australian climate and future changes

I. G. Watterson 0000-0001-9484-018X
 

How variable is Australian climate and how will this change in a warmer world? The interannual variability of rainfall, temperature, pressure, moisture flux and winds is assessed using gridded observations and climate model output. Australian climate variability is typically somewhat larger than over global land. There is a small increase for 2°C global warming, in part linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ES24007 Abstract  |  ES24007 Full Text  | ES24007PDF (8.7 MB)  | ES24007Supplementary Material (5.2 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 16 July 2025

ES24031Green Sahara influence on South Atlantic dynamics: insights from NASA GISS simulations

Ilana Wainer 0000-0003-3784-623X, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael Griffiths, Luciana F. Prado and Paulo Silva
 

This study explores the impact of Mid-Holocene terrestrial changes, particularly the Green Sahara and African mega-lakes, on South Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics using NASA GISS E2.1-G climate model simulations. Findings highlight significant alterations in sea surface temperatures, salinity, circulation patterns and atmospheric dynamics, underscoring the critical role of vegetation and hydrology in modulating regional climate during this period. The research provides valuable insights into the interconnected nature of Earth’s climate systems, with implications for understanding past climate variability and future changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

ES24031 Abstract  |  ES24031 Full Text  | ES24031PDF (33 MB)  | ES24031Supplementary Material (1.6 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 08 July 2025

ES24047Seasonal sea level forecasts for the Australian coast

Ryan M. Holmes 0000-0002-6799-9109, Grant A. Smith 0000-0003-4692-6565 and Claire M. Spillman
 

Seasonal variations in coastal sea level associated with climate variability such as El Niño are known to influence the frequency of coastal flooding around Australia. In this article we show that, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system ACCESS-S2, seasonal coastal sea level variations can be forecast accurately up to 8 months ahead of time. These seasonal forecasts will form an important component of an early warning system under development to improve community resilience to coastal flooding hazards.

ES24047 Abstract  |  ES24047 Full Text  | ES24047PDF (7.9 MB)  | ES24047Supplementary Material (1.1 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25010The Australian wave forecast system with statistical wind correction

Stefan Zieger 0000-0002-6051-8085
 

The Bureau of Meteorology provides vital marine services that strongly depend on guidance from a suite of numerical weather prediction models. These models have vastly improved skill because of increased resolution, enhanced data assimilation (increasing numbers and types of observations), and improved physical parameterisations – and are verified against satellite and wave buoy observations. Compared to the legacy wave model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, the Bureau’s global wave forecast system shows increased skill.

ES25010 Abstract  |  ES25010 Full Text  | ES25010PDF (10.4 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25005Diverse impact of 2023 El Niño on weather patterns over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Sanaullah Zehri 0009-0008-1971-5651, Erma Yulihastin 0000-0001-5327-7597, Fiolenta Marpaung 0000-0002-3781-1996, Agung Adiputra, Mushoddik 0009-0006-8718-1706, Narizka Nanda Purwadani 0000-0001-9122-8227 and Gammamerdianti
 

The 2023 El Niño significantly affected weather patterns across the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). Using ERA5 data, this study analyses these effects. Findings reveal that, while the northern IMC exhibited increased rainfall due to the warming of the South China Sea, the southern IMC experienced severe drought exacerbated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and weakened easterly winds. This study improves understanding of the diverse impact of El Niño on intraseasonal weather to enhance seasonal climate predictions over the IMC.

ES25005 Abstract  |  ES25005 Full Text  | ES25005PDF (8 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 04 June 2025

ES24050Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia

Xiaoxuan Jiang 0000-0002-5278-7007, Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su 0000-0003-2504-0466, Rachael N. Isphording, Benjamin Ng, Sarah Chapman 0000-0002-3141-8616, Fei Ji, Michael Grose 0000-0001-8012-9960, Jozef Syktus 0000-0003-1782-3073, Ralph Trancoso, Marcus Thatcher, Sugata Narsey 0000-0002-2039-5025, Giovanni Di Virgilio and Jatin Kala
 

Regional high-resolution climate models (RCMs) provide insights for assessing future climate hazards and risks. Determining the ability of RCMs to simulate present day rainfall and temperatures is critical to inform model use. We apply a novel benchmarking framework to assess RCMs’ ability to simulate Australia’s current climate. Across latest projections produced by four modelling centres, no climate simulation consistently fails the majority of benchmarks. We conclude that the full multi-model ensemble is fit for use in the Australian region.

ES24050 Abstract  |  ES24050 Full Text  | ES24050PDF (8 MB)  | ES24050Supplementary Material (2.4 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 03 June 2025

ES24030Synoptic structure of severe Zonda downslope windstorms in Argentina

Federico Otero 0000-0002-0479-515X, Diego Araneo and Maximiliano Viale
 

Severe Zonda windstorms in Argentina produce intense, gusty, warm and dry conditions that result in significant socioeconomic impacts. This study examines the atmospheric dynamics driving long-duration severe events, highlighting the role of stronger pressure systems, enhanced upper- and lower-level winds and more intense cross-Andes flow. These findings enhance our understanding of severe Zonda windstorms and provide insights that could improve weather forecasting and help mitigate their impacts on affected communities.

ES24030 Abstract  |  ES24030 Full Text  | ES24030PDF (11.6 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 20 May 2025

ES24041Evaluation of near-surface atmospheric composition reanalysis data in the metropolis of São Paulo, Brazil

Marina S. Paiva, Marco A. Franco and Luciana V. Rizzo 0000-0002-1748-6997
 

Air pollution is unequally monitored in Brazil, despite its relevance and health impacts. Global atmospheric model estimates can fill this lack of data after validation against air pollution observations. This study evaluates two global models and finds that one of them reproduces the seasonal variation of air pollution in the metropolis of São Paulo. After the necessary corrections, model estimates can be used to assess air pollution conditions in regions where direct observations are absent.

ES24041 Abstract  |  ES24041 Full Text  | ES24041PDF (3.3 MB)  | ES24041Supplementary Material (1.3 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 30 April 2025

ES24052Probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind gusts

Paul Fox-Hughes 0000-0002-0083-9928 and Alex Melitsis
 

Two extreme wind case studies in Tasmania are investigated. The efficacy of a probabilistic wind gust diagnostic, based on ACCESS-CE model output, is assessed in each case. For these events, the diagnostic was found to usefully summarise model information about the timing, intensity and extent of the extreme winds.

ES24052 Abstract  |  ES24052 Full Text  |  ES24052 Full Text  | ES24052PDF (6.3 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 14 April 2025

ES23026Utilisation of local emission inventory data for forecasting PM10 using the WRF-Chem model in the Bandung Basin

Prawira Yudha Kombara 0000-0002-4165-2318, Alvin Pratama, Nani Cholianawati, Ninong Komala and Dessy Gusnita
 

Predicting PM10 is crucial in addressing air pollution in large cities such as Bandung. The WRF-Chem model, commonly used with global emission data, can potentially provide better predictions with regional emission data. Here, we show that although the model ran successfully with regional data, the predictions contain significant errors, suggesting it cannot yet accurately predict PM10 in the Bandung Basin.

ES23026 Abstract  |  ES23026 Full Text  | ES23026PDF (4.3 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 19 March 2025

ES23030Increased stratification intensifies surface marine heatwaves north-east of Aotearoa New Zealand in New Zealand’s Earth System model

Liv Cornelissen 0009-0003-2053-0674, Erik Behrens, Denise Fernandez and Philip J. H. Sutton
 

We found that the main drivers of projected intensified surface marine heatwaves north-east of New Zealand are changes in the vertical distribution of heat transport and increased stratification, trapping heat near the ocean surface, and heat convergence within the region increasing in parallel with higher greenhouse gas emissions. This explains why the surface and shallow subsurface heating is projected to become more intense, and enables a more nuanced ecosystem vulnerability assessment in relation to marine heatwaves.

ES23030 Abstract  |  ES23030 Full Text  | ES23030PDF (3.9 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 18 March 2025

ES24010Sydney downslope windstorm event on 31 October 2023

Jiwon Park 0000-0003-3428-928X
 

South-western suburbs of Sydney were affected by 3–4 h of sustained strong westerly winds during the early morning on 31 October 2023 due to a dynamically driven downslope windstorm of moderate strength, which resulted in 425 State Emergency Service (SES) jobs in the aftermath. This paper looks into the observations and computer model outputs during the event to identify the unique mesoscale features seen and analyse the mechanisms that led to the windstorm.

ES24010 Abstract  |  ES24010 Full Text  | ES24010PDF (11.7 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 18 March 2025

ES24028Validation of BARRA2 and comparison with MERRA-2 and ERA5 using historical wind power generation

Graham Palmer 0000-0002-7667-4189, Roger Dargaville, Chun-Hsu Su 0000-0003-2504-0466, Changlong Wang, Andrew Hoadley and Damon Honnery
 

Energy system modelling is a crucial component of planning for the decarbonisation of energy supply. By incorporating meteorological data, such as historical wind speeds across space and time, these models can simulate wind power generation. However, it is essential to quantify the accuracy and confidence of these models to ensure their reliability and effectiveness.

ES24028 Abstract  |  ES24028 Full Text  | ES24028PDF (2.1 MB)   Open Access Article

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These articles have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. They are still in production and have not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.

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Outstanding Associate Editor Award

Anthony Rea is the recipient of the 2024 Outstanding Associate Editor Award.

Best Student Paper

The Best Student Paper published in 2024 has been awarded to Nahuel Bautista.

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